Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

Scarcity: The Ultimate Source Of Profits

Most of the increase in S&P 500 earnings estimates this year has stemmed from shortages. The oil shortage, which has pushed up estimates for energy companies, will fade once the military conflict is resolved. However, the shortage of semiconductors and other AI paraphernalia could persist for a whil...

Corporate Profits AI

23 Apr 2026

Webcast Replay

Disconnect Between Markets And Fundamentals?

Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan, for a Webcast on Thursday, April 23 at 2:00 PM EDT | 7:00 PM BST | 8:00 PM CEST.

Arthur will discuss:

EM equities: A profitless rally
EM structural profitability: Little improvement
China: Making sense of the economy and stock market
EM Local Bonds: Buy Back On Dips
EM sovereign credit: As good as it gets
EM equity and fixed income opportunities

Watch Now

Report

Oil Shocks: The Myth, And The Reality

In the US, the oil shock’s impact is more inflationary than recessionary but in the other economies, like the UK, the impact is both inflationary and recessionary. This creates relative value opportunities for bond investors. Plus, we reiterate short AUD/JPY as a trade....

Oil Inflation

23 Apr 2026

Report

With Central Banks On Hold, Carry Takes Over

With central banks largely on hold, the return of a lower volatility environment is bringing carry trades back into focus. We outline the most attractive carry opportunities across global fixed income markets....

Monetary Policy Corporate Bonds

23 Apr 2026

Report

Europe Infrastructure: Short Renewables, Long Power Storage And Data Centers

Europe has been too ambitious with Renewables. Oversupply, volatility, and rising contract risk are compressing revenues and returns. The space is now crowded yet markets have not fully repriced the risk. New opportunities are emerging: Power Storage and Data Centers have upside....

Europe Renewable Energy

23 Apr 2026

Report

Time To Take Some Risk

We recommend increasing exposure to spread product as the US economy transitions back into a low rate vol regime....

US Fixed Income

22 Apr 2026

Report

Peru: Election Boosts Markets

Peru is well established to elect a pro-market government in the June 7 run-off, with institutional constraints limiting left-tail policy risks. We will go long Peruvian assets when Hormuz volatility subsides....

Peru Elections

22 Apr 2026

Webcast Replay

Hormuz: The Ripple Effects

Roukaya discussed:

What is the status of the global and regional energy sector, including production and distribution?
How should investors assess the Iran war’s impact on the energy market?
How will the energy disruption ripple across other markets?
What are the long-term commodity market implications of the Iran war?

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Report

The Multi-Anchor Currency Regime: Implications for Global Asset Markets

The debate over “what replaces the dollar” is misguided. The real shift is toward a multi-anchor system where reserve functions fragment. That changes everything from term premia to cross-asset correlations. The implication: portfolios built for the old regime are already behind the curve....

Multipolarity Currencies

21 Apr 2026

Webcast Replay

Deploy Or Delay: New Loans, Distressed Opportunities, And Emerging Credit Dislocations

Macro headlines may have shifted attention away from Private Markets, but the underlying risks remain. We revisit the Private Credit-Software cracks we flagged early and explain why, despite the noise, the structural story is just getting started.

How did we get here?
Is Software making or breaking Private Credit's diversification case?
Systemic risk or a normal credit cycle?
How are our 2024 calls on Distressed versus Buyouts playing out?
Where are the most overlooked opportunities across Private (and Public) Markets right now?

Watch Now