FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
Natural gas storage levels in the US and EU are sufficient to balance flowing supply and demand this winter, assuming normal weather. China continues to invest in domestic production, and to diversify supply sources to compensate for a lack of storage. Longer-term Qatari contracts are giving higher weight to natgas trading hub prices. We remain long the XOP ETF to retain exposure to fossil-fuel producers supplying DM and EM economies with natgas beyond the 2050 net-zero-emissions goals advanced by the IEA.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.
Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.
A look at recent data on economic growth, inflation and the labor market, and a discussion of the implications for Fed policy and bond strategy.
The US and core OPEC 2.0 are – wittingly or not – laying the groundwork for a price band with a floor and cap on oil prices – at $79/bbl and $130/bbl, respectively – “at least” to May 2024. This accommodates multiple goals for both. To meaningfully support policy, the US would need to scale up purchases to refill its SPR. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs for direct exposure to energy E+P equities and commodities.
This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.
In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.
In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.